In the fourth quarter of 2017, the PVC market rebounded after the fall, and rationality returned. At the same time, there were some changes in the fundamentals of start-up rate, profit, export and inventory.

The overall INIPVC market in the fourth quarter showed a trend of falling first and then rising. Taking SG-5 market price as an example, the average price in the fourth quarter was 6435 yuan / ton, 680 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the third quarter, a 9.6% drop. Specifically, in October-November, due to the continuous decline in futures, spot trading weakness, prices from high to fall continuously. In early December, prices fell to historically low levels, and due to early enterprises eager to lower prices shipment, inventory pressure is not great, so in December INIPVC prices bottomed out rebound.

In September-December 2017, INIPVC paste resin ring ratio declined, according to customs data, mainly due to weak domestic demand and price continued to decline, the domestic paste resin market after the return of the National Day holidays into the downward channel, trading atmosphere is light, factory quotations are down 100-200 yuan / ton than before the festival. In winter, the industrial enterprises in some provinces of North China have implemented the regulation measures of staggered peak production in winter, and the downstream enterprises have encountered the policy of stopping production and limiting production, resulting in low demand.

Statistics of PVC social inventory in the second half of 2017

Although the profits of PVC enterprises dropped sharply in the fourth quarter and Ningbo Yihang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. suffered a loss from October to November, the overall profits of Ningbo Yihang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. are still good because of the considerable profits of its supporting products during the same period, so the enterprises of Ningbo Yihang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. are PVC Ningbo Yihang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. On the contrary, with most enterprises gradually completing the annual overhaul, the start-up rate of PVC Ningbo Yihang Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. in the fourth quarter is showing a gradual upward trend. Statistics show that the overall operating rate of the PVC industry in the fourth quarter is 78.23%, an increase of 6.68% over the three quarter. Since the third quarter, due to the sharp rise in the price of PVC in China, the domestic price is obviously higher than the international price, the export lacks price advantage, and the export volume will gradually decline. In the four quarter, exports continued to fall to the lowest level in the year. Exports improved slightly in November as demand improved in India and domestic prices fell to low levels, but prices in China rebounded significantly again in December. Although international prices also rose during the same period, international prices rose less than domestic prices, with domestic exports in general in all December. Four quarters of 2017 PVC industry keywords: September: from hot to weak September, the domestic PVC market presents a double-day scene. In the first half of the month, the price of PVC in the domestic market continued to rise, and the people on the floor were in a good mood. They were more confident that the price would exceed 8000. However, when futures hit 7980, prices began to fall sharply. In the second half of the month, the price of PVC market declined all the way. Affected by environmental supervision, the overall start-up of PVC enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Qinghai and other eight provinces dropped significantly, and the market supply was tight. In the first ten days, the overall supply of PVC was still tight, and the price rose obviously. However, in the second half of the month, futures prices dropped sharply for a week, and their daily losses were over 100 yuan. Manufacturer's new orders are also reduced more, under this pressure, manufacturers prices are also frequently downward, big single negotiation more profit. October: concussion operation in October, China's aviation chemical PVC market did not appear the traditional silver ten phenomenon. After the National Day holiday, the nineteenth Congress was held, the start-up load of PVC enterprises around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei decreased, but it did not ease the pressure of the market. The temperature in the north is gradually getting lower, and various policies to control smog and haze and limit production of enterprises have been introduced. The downstream is obviously affected by this, and the overall demand has been reduced. There are not many PVC overhauling enterprises in China, and the supply has increased earlier. Although the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei peripheral PVC enterprises by the 19 major impact, the start-up has decreased, but most of the early northwest overhaul enterprises restored to start. November: Weak downward in November, the domestic chemical PVC market of Air China dropped sharply, while the calcium carbide method of Qilu Chemical City fell by 6.56% compared with the average price of last month. The main reason is that the northern region is obviously affected by cross-peak production, and the downstream demand is shrinking. South market downstream needs are also more general, traders shipments stored pressure. December: Horizontal consolidation in December, the domestic PVC market rebounded, prices in various regions have risen to varying degrees. Among them, the East China market calcium carbide materials rose significantly, the market prices in this area were significantly affected by futures, coupled with the market supply is not much, the holders are more than high-selling. China's aviation chemical PVC market rebounded and market sentiment improved. The main reason is that environmental supervision in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia has been tightened, and some industries have been restricted to start work. In particular, the industries in Ningxia, such as Zhongning, Zhongwei and Wuning, such as calcium carbide, manganese and silicon, require to stop or reduce the start-up load. Although the daily output is reduced by 2,000 tons/day compared with the late November, the futures market has been greatly reversed by environmental protection. Bounce. In addition, the southern social inventory is not high, traders have no inventory pressure, market inquiry atmosphere unprecedented upsurge, shipment in good condition. There are more orders in the factory area, and some enterprises have serious inventory problems. However, with the gradual arrival of the supply of goods in the southern market, and under the pressure of high prices, the downstream confrontation deepened, the PVC spot market returned to the consolidation pattern. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2018, the main factors to be concerned about are as follows: 1. V1805 bull atmosphere is relatively strong, investors are generally bullish on the future performance of the contract, 6500 line has strong support, investors are willing to do more when low. 2. Upstream chemical PVC enterprises generally do not have inventory, most of the large enterprises maintain pre-sale, and most enterprises have predicted to mid-January, small and medium-sized enterprises inventory is also in a tight state, all short-term PVC inventory.The pressure is not big. 3. The price of caustic soda keeps falling and the liquid chlorine keeps low. Some chlor-alkali enterprises in Shandong Province without their own power plants have been losing money as a whole, and the cost side has certain support. The Spring Festival holidays are approaching gradually, the half month to one month before and after the Spring Festival, the start-up rate of terminal products enterprises will be significantly affected, while the upstream Ningbo Airlines Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. PVC enterprises will continue to maintain a high level of start-up in the same period. Although the upstream enterprises have no sales pressure in the short term, the enterprises in the medium term still focus on positive shipping. 2. The V1801 contract is about to be delivered in the middle of the year. Some of the previously locked sources will flow to the market one after another, and there will be a centralized release of supply. 3. The first quarter is the traditional off-season, spot participants generally do not look good on the first quarter of the market, the operation is often prudent, all the spot market is difficult to form a clear price atmosphere. It can be seen that PVC prices are in a more tangled position at present, and the risk of spot hoarding at more than 6500 yuan / ton is greater, and there are still big differences in the later period of long vacancy. All PVC market prices are expected to be mainly narrow fluctuations in the first quarter, and the SG-5 price range is expected to be 6300-6800 yuan / ton in East China. Microscopic outlook: On January 1, 2018, Taiwan Taipei Plastic Co. announced a February offer for PVC cargo, up $40 per ton from January. FOB Taiwan $870 / ton, CIF China 910 USD / ton, CIF India 960 USD / ton. 2, domestic PVC manufacturers have more pre-sale orders, some of which are pre sold to around 20-25. 3, Ningbo Han Hua overhaul ended, resumed normal operation. In the late stage, there is no overhaul enterprise, and the PVC industry has a higher operating rate. 4. Due to the influence of early snowstorm in some northern areas, the delivery of calcium carbide was delayed, the supply of raw materials was tight in some areas, and the start-up load decreased slightly. Reminder: In the first week of January 2018, the weekly inventory of PVC increased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, 24.5% higher. From the weekly level, upstream and trader inventory increased, terminal inventory decreased slightly, inventory turnover is generally.